- Purchase → valuation
- →
- Initial amount
- 100,000,000 KRW
- Original purchase close
- 39,400 KRW
- KRW 100 million after ten years
- 4,669,922,800 KRW
- Cumulative return
- 4,569.92%
- CAGR
- 46.88%
Common shares 000660, excluding cash dividends and reinvestment. Valuation date: September 22, 2026.
What would different investment amounts be worth?
No additional contributions or withdrawals. Whole shares are purchased and remaining KRW stays in cash, so returns vary slightly with the cash proportion. Values round to whole KRW; tables scroll horizontally on mobile.
| Investment | Final value | Cumulative return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000,000 KRW | 46,015,000 KRW | 4,501.50% | 46.66% |
| 10,000,000 KRW | 465,551,800 KRW | 4,555.52% | 46.83% |
| 50,000,000 KRW | 2,334,961,400 KRW | 4,569.92% | 46.88% |
| 100,000,000 KRW | 4,669,922,800 KRW | 4,569.92% | 46.88% |
Ten years of investment values: advances and reversals
Last monthly observations trace the KRW value of the initial investment. Look for periods of growth and large reversals alongside the ending value above.
Read annual investment values as a table
| Date | KRW value |
|---|---|
| 2016-09-22 | 100,000,000 KRW |
| 2016-12-29 | 113,451,400 KRW |
| 2017-12-28 | 194,159,800 KRW |
| 2018-12-28 | 153,551,800 KRW |
| 2019-12-30 | 238,828,600 KRW |
| 2020-12-30 | 300,755,800 KRW |
| 2021-12-30 | 332,480,800 KRW |
| 2022-12-29 | 190,352,800 KRW |
| 2023-12-28 | 359,129,800 KRW |
| 2024-12-30 | 441,361,000 KRW |
| 2025-12-30 | 1,652,240,800 KRW |
| 2026-09-22 | 4,669,922,800 KRW |
SK hynix reported an operating loss in 2023, yet the year-end share value was higher than a year earlier. Share prices reflect expectations as well as reported earnings. Holding meant weighing current losses against expectations of recovery. The 2026 value stops on September 22.
The recent advance also contained a sharp reversal. Observed value fell from 6,725,702,800 KRW on June 30, 2026 to 4,248,614,800 KRW on August 31, before reaching 4,669,922,800 KRW on September 22. This compares sampled observations, not the maximum drawdown over the full period.
Why holding on for ten years was difficult
The final value makes ten years of patience look well rewarded. Living through those years meant navigating repeated memory booms and downturns. Gains could prompt a sale before the next slump; losses could raise doubts about another recovery. What would help an investor make those decisions?
A boom brings fears of the next downturn
The chart value rose in 2017 and fell in 2018. It recovered in 2019–2020, then declined again in 2022. Watching gains disappear can make taking profits early in the next rally appealing. Even with strong memory prices and rising earnings, an investor could ask whether the boom was nearing its end.
Selling also leaves a second decision: when to buy again. Shares can anticipate an earnings recovery, so waiting for strong reported results can mean returning at a higher price. A strategy of selling during each boom needs a plan for both protecting gains and participating in the next advance.
Repeated losses weaken the reason to wait
The 2023 results published in January 2024 showed a KRW 7.73 trillion annual operating loss. A technologically competitive company could still lose heavily as memory prices and inventories changed. A holder could face a difficult choice between waiting for recovery and putting the money into another investment.
I believe the reason to wait should be specific. Are customer inventories falling? Are selling prices recovering? Can the business fund its investment spending? Conditions to check in the business give an investor a clearer basis for holding than simply hoping the shares return to an old high.
HBM growth still required ongoing judgment
The same release described rising HBM3 sales and a return to operating profit in Q4 2023. Annual losses and a growing new product existed within the same company. Looking only at aggregate earnings could obscure that change; looking only at HBM expectations could understate the burden of the existing memory business.
A decision to keep holding calls for checking whether HBM demand becomes revenue and profit, and whether the company remains competitive in supplying the products customers need. Follow DRAM and NAND prices and inventories as well. Turning a belief that memory will recover into business conditions you can examine is part of preparing to hold for the long term.
Why might investors have bought SK hynix in 2016?
The investment case can be examined through information public before purchase, including the July 26, 2016 Q2 release. The central question was when shipment growth would become earnings recovery.
- Recovering DRAM and NAND shipments. Q2 shipment volumes rose 18% and 52% quarter on quarter, respectively; NAND also benefited from a low prior-quarter base. That suggested recovering demand, but average selling prices fell 11% for each product. Rising volumes were already failing to produce higher profits.
- Mobile, SSD and product-mix demand. Management described growing mobile and SSD demand and DDR4/LPDDR4 expansion. Demand beyond PCs could support the thesis. However, faster supply growth from competitors could still depress prices.
- Process transitions and 3D NAND competitiveness. The FY2015 release discussed 2Znm DRAM cost improvements and plans for 48-layer 3D NAND. By Q2 2016, management described 36-layer shipments and planned 48-layer shipments later that year. The thesis depended on successful execution; competition with Samsung, yields and capital requirements remained risks.
- Operating leverage in a price recovery. Quarterly revenue grew 8% while operating profit fell 19%. A recovery in prices and utilization could disproportionately improve earnings in a business with large fixed costs. That was an investment hypothesis, with the reverse risk that falling prices and utilization would magnify losses and delay recovery of capital spending.
The key investment question was how quickly shipment growth and process transitions would translate into earnings. Quarterly results provided a way to track that progress and reassess the reason to hold.
Did the original investment thesis hold up?
Demand and earnings did recover, but not permanently. The FY2017 release described internet data-center demand and supply constraints from process transitions and capital requirements; annual operating profit reached KRW 13.72 trillion. By 2019, inventories, cautious purchasing and falling prices reduced operating profit to KRW 2.71 trillion. Both the recovery thesis and its cyclical counterargument materialized.
AI and HBM are separate, subsequent growth drivers. The 2023 release discussed above described HBM3 sales growth and a return to operating profit in Q4; the 2024 release described AI-memory growth including HBM and enterprise SSDs. These were more specific product and demand developments than the broad DRAM/NAND recovery case in 2016. A holder could revisit the original process-competitiveness thesis as these new sources of demand emerged.
Same-period comparison with Samsung Electronics and the S&P 500
All rows use KRW 100 million and identical dates, excluding dividends, taxes and trading costs. SPY represents the S&P 500 through an ETF; its KRW value includes USD/KRW movements. The Korean shares require no FX conversion.
| Asset | Final value | Cumulative return | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics | 854,392,600 KRW | 754.39% | 23.93% |
| SK hynix | 4,669,922,800 KRW | 4,569.92% | 46.88% |
| S&P 500 ETF (SPY) | 437,823,735 KRW | 337.82% | 15.91% |
SK hynix is more concentrated in memory, while Samsung combines components and finished products; SPY spreads exposure across companies. Endpoint returns cannot establish risk-adjusted superiority. The SPY article below includes reinvested dividends and therefore differs from this price-only table.
S&P 500 with dividend reinvestment
Comparison basis
The KRW results cover September 22, 2016 to September 22, 2026 without further contributions: dividends excluded. Personal taxes, trading and FX costs, and inflation are excluded. Korean shares use whole quantities at split-adjusted prices, with leftover KRW cash included.
Calculation details and source records
Coverage has not been fully audited against the exchange calendar. The largest stored-date interval is 9/29/17 to 10/10/17, which may include holidays. No interpolation or full-history maximum drawdown is presented.
Dividends, corporate actions and calculation basis
The asset is SK hynix common stock 000660. The original September 22, 2016 close was KRW 39,400, versus a stored close of KRW 1840000 on September 22, 2026. Raw and split-adjusted closes match throughout the stored period, so no split or consolidation adjustment is applied. The full corporate-action filing history has not been independently reconciled. Samsung’s 50:1 split factor does not apply to this stock.
Cash dividends, reinvestment, contributions, withdrawals, personal taxes, transaction taxes, fees and inflation are excluded. Both Korean stocks stay in KRW in either language. Only SPY uses FX, from 1103.3 to 1356.5 KRW/USD; these are neither executable FX quotes nor simultaneous valuations.
Prices and calculations reuse project observations and the backtest engine, reconciled to the hub endpoints. Checked September 29, 2026; valued September 22. Independent reconciliation to original KRX closes, complete exchange-calendar coverage and central-bank FX reconciliation remain incomplete. This is a reproduction using stored observations, not a certified total-return series or live quote. Business evidence comes from the official SK hynix releases linked above.
Formulas and rounding
Shares = floor(principal ÷ starting close). Cash = principal − shares × starting close. Value = shares × adjusted closing price + cash. Return = (value ÷ principal − 1) × 100. CAGR = ((value ÷ principal)^(365.2425 / elapsed days) − 1) × 100. No separate split factor is applied.
The existing engine uses 24 significant digits, money to two decimals and return percentages to six. Display uses HALF_UP rounding to whole KRW and two percentage decimals. No annual rounding or interest payment is modeled.
Frequently asked questions
Does the result include dividends?
No. This is a price-only result for SK hynix common shares, 000660. Cash dividends and dividend reinvestment are excluded, so it is not a total-return series.
Could an investor in 2016 have predicted the AI boom?
The contemporary case examined here concerns memory demand, process transitions and a cyclical recovery. Later AI and HBM growth is assessed separately; knowing that a technology existed did not make its eventual demand or investment return predictable.
Why do returns differ slightly by investment amount?
The existing engine buys whole Korean shares and keeps leftover KRW in cash. Different principal amounts leave different cash proportions. Taxes, fees and dividends would also make an actual account differ from this model.
How can I use a backtest for SK hynix?
Use starting dates in strong and weak memory cycles and compare with KODEX 200. Study the business and selling prices alongside period returns and drawdowns to develop a holding plan.
Compare other assets: KRW 100 million invested ten years ago
What to examine before owning a memory producer
I believe we should invest as well as follow technological change. Studying companies that turn industry growth into a business makes the choice of where to put our money more concrete. Our money should participate in that growth through investing. Choosing a company to own for years requires studying both boom-time gains and the reasons to wait through a downturn. Examine memory prices, inventories and HBM revenue and earnings, then vary the entry date in a backtest to explore declines and holding periods you could sustain.
What if you bought SK hynix on another date?
Compare SK hynix with KODEX 200 using starting dates in both strong and weak memory cycles. Returns and large declines help you think about a holding period and allocation you could sustain.
Open SK hynix backtestThis article presents the author’s investment opinion and historical observations. Returns and losses depend on the asset and investment period.